Job market sentiment among US workers is collapsing: In Q4 2025, just 28% of US employees said it is a 'good time' to find a quality job, the lowest in at least 4 years, according to the latest Gallup survey. This percentage has fallen -42 points since Q2 2022.
Now that Anthropic has won a preliminary injunction blocking the Pentagon's claim that Anthropic is a 'supply-chain risk,' maybe the two sides can call a truce for the good of the country.
Investors are ramping up bets against Oracle's credit: Oracle's, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to 191 basis points, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. Company's CDS have QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, meaning protection against Oracle's default now costs 4x what it did just months ago.
Is this true re OAI? It's hard to know anymore. Either way. This whole period will be studied. Insane 'purchase agreements' creating 100s of billions in wealth… circular financing … 19 layer SPVs… MANAGE RISK
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC says they will target two Israeli or US universities in the region in retaliation for the attack on Iran's University of Science and Technology in Tehran.
US Official: Expeditionary force of 2,500 US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, along with 2,500 sailors, arrived in the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli - NYT.
The number of American service members wounded in the Iran war has grown beyond 300, with more than two dozen troops injured this week from attacks on a Saudi air base.
Trump: 'We have a thing called a war, or as they would rather say, a military operation. It's for legal reasons. Because as a military operation, I don't need any approvals. As a war you're supposed to get approval from Congress. Something like that. So I call it a military [operation].'
aave V4 governance vote in april to accept native BTC collateral through babylon. 0.77% of bitcoin currently participates in DeFi because wrapping and custody risk keeps $1.9T on the sidelines. aave has $21b TVL, almost entirely ETH and stables. if native BTC gets listed at even [a small fraction of that]
Base split Optimism superchain Feb 2026; Coinbase keeps 100% sequencer fees; $5.9T monthly stablecoin volume (18x other L2s); $78.2M L2 revenue captured 2025; Circle pays Coinbase 56% of USDC revenue
base split from the optimism superchain in february. coinbase now keeps 100% of sequencer fees on a chain doing $5.9T monthly stablecoin volume, 18x more than any other L2. base captured majority of all L2 revenue in 2025 at $78.2m. add circle paying coinbase 56% of all USDC revenue.
Investors are ramping up bets against Oracle's credit: Oracle's, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to 191 basis points, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. Company's CDS have QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, meaning protection against Oracle's default now
Talks in the administration the past month touched upon possible seizure of Kharg Island, key Iranian oil export hub, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons that can target commercial and military shipping, officials said.
The number of American service members wounded in the Iran war has grown beyond 300, with more than two dozen troops injured this week from attacks on a Saudi air base.
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC says they will target two Israeli or US universities in the region in retaliation for the attack on Iran's University of Science and Technology in Tehran.
aave V4 governance vote in april to accept native BTC collateral through babylon. 0.77% of bitcoin currently participates in DeFi because wrapping and custody risk keeps $1.9T on the sidelines. aave has $21b TVL, almost entirely ETH and stables. if native BTC gets listed at even
base split from the optimism superchain in february. coinbase now keeps 100% of sequencer fees on a chain doing $5.9T monthly stablecoin volume, 18x more than any other L2. base captured majority of all L2 revenue in 2025 at $78.2m. add circle paying coinbase 56% of all USDC
Investors are ramping up bets against Oracle's credit: Oracle's, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to 191 basis points, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. Company's CDS have QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, meaning protection against Oracle's default now...
Iran is "completely decimated", yet they are still able to hit and destroy critical US air assets while they sit on our own bases… They're lying about the damage Iran has done. [Photos have surfaced showing extensive damage to US Air Force E-3 Sentry #AE11EA 81-0005 following the drone and missile attack at Prince Sultan Air Base yesterday that also damaged several KC-135s.]
Pentagon ground operations in Iran; weeks-long timeline ("weeks not months" to "a couple of months"); Special Ops + conventional infantry raids; possible Kharg Island seizure; Strait of Hormuz coastal raids; Washington Post
Talks in the administration the past month touched upon possible seizure of Kharg Island, key Iranian oil export hub, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons that can target commercial and military shipping, officials said.
BREAKING: Iran's IRGC says they will target two Israeli or US universities in the region in retaliation for the attack on Iran's University of Science and Technology in Tehran.
Base split from Optimism superchain Feb 2025; Coinbase keeps 100% sequencer fees; $5.9T monthly stablecoin volume; 18x vs next L2; $78.2M L2 revenue 2025; Circle pays Coinbase 56% of all USDC revenue
base split from the optimism superchain in february. coinbase now keeps 100% of sequencer fees on a chain doing $5.9T monthly stablecoin volume, 18x more than any other L2. base captured majority of all L2 revenue in 2025 at $78.2m. add circle paying coinbase 56% of all USDC
The worst rout in Treasurys since April's tariff chaos is exacerbating strain in financial markets, a stark demonstration of how war's disruptions to oil flows are leaving investors with few places to shelter
OpenAI plan to sell AGI to China and Russia; Greg Brockman; Dario Amodei called it treason; WSJ report by @keachhagey; Leopold Aschenbrenner prior disclosure
these people are such idiots [QT @michhuan: It was Brockman. @keachhagey at the @WSJ reports that OpenAI had a plan to sell AGI to China and Russia. Amodei thought it was treason. It confirms what former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner revealed in a Dwarkesh Patel interview. Patel: "That's pretty fucked up."
Pentagon ground operations Iran; weeks not months / couple of months; Kharg Island seizure; Strait of Hormuz raids; Special Operations + conventional infantry; not full-scale invasion; Washington Post
Talks in the administration the past month touched upon possible seizure of Kharg Island, key Iranian oil export hub, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons that can target commercial and military shipping, officials said.
Iran is 'completely decimated', yet they are still able to hit and destroy critical US air assets while they sit on our own bases… They're lying about the damage Iran has done.
Saudi Arabia's crucial East-West pipeline that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 million barrels a day, per Bloomberg
The worst rout in Treasurys since April's tariff chaos is exacerbating strain in financial markets, a stark demonstration of how war's disruptions to oil flows are leaving investors with few places to shelter
these people are such idiots [QT @michhuan: It was Brockman. @keachhagey at the @WSJ reports that OpenAI had a plan to sell AGI to China and Russia. Amodei thought it was treason. It confirms what former OpenAI employee Leopold Aschenbrenner revealed in a Dwarkesh Patel interview. Patel: "That's pretty fucked up."]
Pentagon ground ops Iran, Kharg Island seizure, Strait of Hormuz raids, 'weeks not months' to 'couple of months', Special Ops + conventional infantry, WashPost
Talks in the administration the past month touched upon possible seizure of Kharg Island, key Iranian oil export hub, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons that can target commercial and military shipping, officials said. One person, as per the report, said that the objectives under consideration would probably take "weeks, not months" to complete. Another put the potential timeline at "a couple of months."
Iran is "completely decimated", yet they are still able to hit and destroy critical US air assets while they sit on our own bases… They're lying about the damage Iran has done.
This is going, where we all dreaded AI might go. Not just predicting will you click an ad but what will you react, seeing a post or ad or anything else. Powerful and next-level move by Meta!
BREAKING: The US is preparing for a potential ground invasion into Iran that would last for up to 2 months, per the Washington Post. Details include: 1. Thousands of American soldiers are arriving in the Middle East for what could become a 'dangerous new phase' of the war 2.
Iran is 'completely decimated', yet they are still able to hit and destroy critical US air assets while they sit on our own bases… They're lying about the damage Iran has done.
spent $324m buying back 28% of $PUMP circulating supply and the token is still down 59% on the year. someone is selling faster than the protocol can buy. team extracted $500-600m, 11.2b tokens moved to kraken in february, and a $170m unlock hits in july
*SAUDI EAST-WEST OIL PIPELINE REACHES 7 MLN B/D CAPACITY. The east‑to‑west pipeline is known as the Petroline (East–West Crude Oil Pipeline). It runs from Abqaiq, near the Ras Tanura oil terminal on the Persian Gulf, to the Red Sea export terminals at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz.
BREAKING: The US is preparing for a potential ground invasion into Iran that would last for up to 2 months, per the Washington Post. Details include: 1. Thousands of American soldiers are arriving in the Middle East for what could become a 'dangerous new phase' of the war.
spent $324m buying back 28% of $PUMP circulating supply and the token is still down 59% on the year. someone is selling faster than the protocol can buy. team extracted $500-600m, 11.2b tokens moved to kraken in february, and a $170m unlock hits in july.
China 2,152 first-author researchers vs US 1,810 at NeurIPS — first time China leads
这是中国AI研究人才在顶级学术舞台上数量首次超越美国的里程碑事件。有观察者指出，美国统计数字中相当比例作者本身即为中国留学生，真实的"本土 vs 本土"差距可能比数字更为复杂，但中国AI研究产出的整体崛起态势无可否认。
Probably many of the those authors in the US are also Chinese students... [QT @alvinfoo: China just overtook the US for the first time in a major metric of top AI talent. Based on first authors at NeurIPS, a premier AI research conference, China now leads with 2,152 first-author researchers vs. the US's 1,810.]
Attacks in the Middle East conflict extended into a fifth week Sunday, with Israel striking Tehran and Saudi Arabia intercepting almost a dozen drones, a day after Yemen-based Houthi militants entered the war.
Probably many of the those authors in the US are also Chinese students... [QT @alvinfoo: China just overtook the US for the first time in a major metric of top AI talent. Based on first authors at NeurIPS, a premier AI research conference, China now leads with 2,152 first-author researchers vs. the US's 1,810.]
Beijing summoned the US's top envoy to Hong Kong after the consulate posted an alert about new rules giving authorities power to demand passwords for smartphones or other devices in national security investigations
Attacks in the Middle East conflict extended into a fifth week Sunday, with Israel striking Tehran and Saudi Arabia intercepting almost a dozen drones, a day after Yemen-based Houthi militants entered the war.
French authorities detained two new suspects in connection with a foiled bombing near Bank of America's main office in Paris, which officials have said is likely linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The US turned to Claude and other artificial intelligence systems to help shape its vision for AI warfare. In Iran that strategy is unfolding in real time
French authorities detained two new suspects in connection with a foiled bombing near Bank of America's main office in Paris, which officials have said is likely linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The US turned to Claude and other artificial intelligence systems to help shape its vision for AI warfare. In Iran that strategy is unfolding in real time
Eli Lilly $LLY has signed an AI-powered drug development deal with Insilico Medicine that could be worth up to $2.75 billion. Under the deal: - Insilico is eligible for $115M in upfront payments; other milestones could bring the value to $2.75B, plus tiered royalties on future
🎯STRUCK: A central site, 1 of only 2 of its kind in Iran, used to produce critical components for ballistic missiles. Additionally, dozens of weapon production sites were struck, including those for ballistic missile engines, UAVs & air defence systems.
IRAN'S SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT: "The US speaks of negotiations in public, but plans a ground attack on secret… Iran's armed forces are waiting for the US' arrival."
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor takes off from a base in the Middle East during Operation Epic Fury. The Raptor is unmatched by any known or projected fighter aircraft.
ethena generated $666m in annual fees on a $780m market cap. price-to-fees ratio of 1.17x. the fee switch isn't even turned on yet. $50m revenue in a single day on march 26. 88% of USDe backing shifted to t-bills, blackrock BUIDL reserves, first GENIUS-compliant stablecoin.
circle ($CRCL) crashed to $61 on CLARITY Act fears in march, now back above $90. ARK loaded $16.3m across three ETFs on the dip. bernstein raised target to $191. the part nobody is pricing: 98.6% of all AI agent payment volume settles in USDC. 15m onchain agent transactions in
The US turned to Claude and other artificial intelligence systems to help shape its vision for AI warfare. In Iran that strategy is unfolding in real time
Eli Lilly $LLY has signed an AI-powered drug development deal with Insilico Medicine that could be worth up to $2.75 billion. Under the deal: - Insilico is eligible for $115M in upfront payments; other milestones could bring the value to $2.75B, plus tiered royalties on future
IDF: 1 of only 2 central ballistic missile component production sites struck; dozens of sites including ballistic missile engines, UAVs, air defence systems
🎯STRUCK: A central site, 1 of only 2 of its kind in Iran, used to produce critical components for ballistic missiles. Additionally, dozens of weapon production sites were struck, including those for ballistic missile engines, UAVs & air defence systems.
IRAN'S SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT: "The US speaks of negotiations in public, but plans a ground attack on secret… Iran's armed forces are waiting for the US' arrival."
ethena generated $666m in annual fees on a $780m market cap. price-to-fees ratio of 1.17x. the fee switch isn't even turned on yet. $50m revenue in a single day on march 26. 88% of USDe backing shifted to t-bills, blackrock BUIDL reserves, first GENIUS-compliant stablecoin.
$CRCL: dip to $61 → recovery above $90; ARK $16.3M across 3 ETFs on dip; Bernstein target raised to $191; 98.6% of AI agent payment volume settles in USDC; 15M onchain agent transactions
circle ($CRCL) crashed to $61 on CLARITY Act fears in march, now back above $90. ARK loaded $16.3m across three ETFs on the dip. bernstein raised target to $191. the part nobody is pricing: 98.6% of all AI agent payment volume settles in USDC. 15m onchain agent transactions in
Futures open in 8 hours. Yet, it has been an eerily quiet weekend with no peace talk headlines and no denial of news that the US is planning a ground invasion of up to 2 months into Iran. We ended last week with US oil prices at $101/barrel, the S&P 500 at a 232-day low
Eli Lilly $LLY has signed an AI-powered drug development deal with Insilico Medicine that could be worth up to $2.75 billion. Under the deal: Insilico is eligible for $115M in upfront payments; other milestones could bring the value to $2.75B, plus tiered royalties on future
$COMPQ NASDAQ % of Stocks Above the 200-DMA sitting at 30.93. Nearly 70% of NASDAQ stocks are already in a downtrend. Historically, real bottoms don't form until this hits sub 20, and most go sub 10. Look at every green circle on this chart: 2002, 2009, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2022,
Attacks in the Middle East conflict extended into a fifth week Sunday, with Israel striking Tehran and Saudi Arabia intercepting almost a dozen drones, a day after Yemen-based Houthi militants entered the war.
7 ships exited Strait of Hormuz Sat (tied most since Mar 2); 1 oil tanker + 2 LNG + 4 bulk carriers; Saudi crude routing along Iranian coastline to Pakistan
7 ships are estimated to have sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday - 1 Oil tanker - 2 LNG tankers - 4 bulk carriers. 4 ships are estimated to have sailed into the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday ... this is tied for the most since March 2nd - Bloomberg
it has been an eerily quiet weekend with no peace talk headlines and no denial of news that the US is planning a ground invasion of up to 2 months into Iran. We ended last week with US oil prices at $101/barrel, the S&P 500 at a 232-day low
The Supreme Court's decision blocking Donald Trump's tariff strategy has thrown US trade policy into turmoil. As the president scrambles for a new path, we look at what his trade war has accomplished
ethena generated $666m in annual fees on a $780m market cap. price-to-fees ratio of 1.17x. the fee switch isn't even turned on yet. $50m revenue in a single day on march 26. 88% of USDe backing shifted to t-bills, blackrock BUIDL reserves, first GENIUS-compliant stablecoin.
Futures open in 8 hours. Yet, it has been an eerily quiet weekend with no peace talk headlines and no denial of news that the US is planning a ground invasion of up to 2 months into Iran. We ended last week with US oil prices at $101/barrel, the S&P 500 at a 232-day low
Welcome to March 29, 2026 The Singularity is about to shift into a higher gear. GPT-5.5, Claude 5 Mythos, and DeepSeek-V4 are all expected to drop in April, a triple release that commentators warn could make frontier
Eli Lilly $LLY has signed an AI-powered drug development deal with Insilico Medicine that could be worth up to $2.75 billion. Under the deal: Insilico is eligible for $115M in upfront payments; other milestones could bring the value to $2.75B, plus tiered royalties on future
几个月前就分析过， AI泡沫的破裂一定不是从需求端开始，而是从融资链开始的 [QT @rdd147: 🚨 RAM prices are plummeting after OpenAi failed to fulfill its commitment to purchase 40% of World supply and terminated its $71 billion SKHynix promise. $MU]
$COMPQ NASDAQ % of Stocks Above the 200-DMA sitting at 30.93. Nearly 70% of NASDAQ stocks are already in a downtrend. Historically, real bottoms don't form until this hits sub 20, and most go sub 10.
Futures open in 8 hours. Yet, it has been an eerily quiet weekend with no peace talk headlines and no denial of news that the US is planning a ground invasion of up to 2 months into Iran. We ended last week with US oil prices at $101/barrel, the S&P 500 at a 232-day low
7 ships are estimated to have sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday - 1 Oil tanker - 2 LNG tankers - 4 bulk carriers 4 ships are estimated to have sailed into the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday... this is tied for the most since March 2nd - Bloomberg
The Supreme Court's decision blocking Donald Trump's tariff strategy has thrown US trade policy into turmoil. As the president scrambles for a new path, we look at what his trade war has accomplished
Futures open in 8 hours. Yet, it has been an eerily quiet weekend with no peace talk headlines and no denial of news that the US is planning a ground invasion of up to 2 months into Iran. We ended last week with US oil prices at $101/barrel, the S&P 500 at a 232-day low, and
Welcome to March 29, 2026 The Singularity is about to shift into a higher gear. GPT-5.5, Claude 5 Mythos, and DeepSeek-V4 are all expected to drop in April, a triple release that commentators warn could make frontier
RAM prices are plummeting after OpenAi failed to fulfill its commitment to purchase 40% of World supply and terminated its $71 billion SKHynix promise. $MU
BREAKING: Iran has drafted legislation to create the "Hormuz Law" which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary details include: 1. Hormuz Law to introduce fees on navigation and pollution in the Strait of Hormuz 2. Draft legislation also
BREAKING: The USS Tripoli has arrived in the Middle East carrying 3,500 sailors and Marines amid reports that the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran, per CNN.
Attacks in the Middle East conflict extended into a fifth week Sunday, with Israel striking Tehran and Saudi Arabia intercepting almost a dozen drones, a day after Yemen-based Houthi militants entered the war.
7 ships are estimated to have sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday - 1 Oil tanker - 2 LNG tankers - 4 bulk carriers 4 ships are estimated to have sailed into the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday ... this is tied for the most since March 2nd - Bloomberg
7 ships are estimated to have sailed out of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday - 1 Oil tanker - 2 LNG tankers - 4 bulk carriers. 4 ships are estimated to have sailed into the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday ... this is tied for the most since March 2nd - Bloomberg
Egypt is set to import at least 1 million barrels a month of Libyan oil to compensate for a halt in Kuwaiti crude supplies caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
🚨 RAM prices are plummeting after OpenAi failed to fulfill its commitment to purchase 40% of World supply and terminated its $71 billion SKHynix promise. $MU
Iran has rejected President Trump's 15-point plan to end the war. At the center of the proposed deal is Iran's nuclear program. What is the status of that program now? I asked @rafaelmgrossi of the @iaeaorg in Part 1 of our conversation.
Iran 'Hormuz Law': fees on navigation + pollution; Saudi/Turkey/Egypt consortium to manage Hormuz oil flows; Pakistan invited; plan shared with US and Iran
BREAKING: Iran has drafted legislation to create the 'Hormuz Law' which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary details include: 1. Hormuz Law to introduce fees on navigation and pollution in the Strait of Hormuz 2. Draft legislation also
BREAKING: Inflation in the Philippines is now set to average 5.1% in 2026 amid surging oil prices and their recently declared "energy emergency," per FT. The Philippines imports 95% of its crude oil and is now facing its biggest energy crisis in history.
USS Tripoli号携带3,500名水手和海军陆战队抵达中东，美国官员表示下周初将具备对伊朗实施大规模地面行动的能力，伊朗高级官员警告美军将被"点火焚烧"。
USS Tripoli arrived Middle East; 3,500 sailors/Marines; ground operation capability confirmed by US official by start of next week; Iran warns troops will be set 'on fire'
Iran has rejected President Trump's 15-point plan to end the war. At the center of the proposed deal is Iran's nuclear program. What is the status of that program now? I asked @rafaelmgrossi of the @iaeaorg in Part 1 of our conversation.
BREAKING: Iran has drafted legislation to create the "Hormuz Law" which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz. Preliminary details include: 1. Hormuz Law to introduce fees on navigation and pollution in the Strait of Hormuz 2. Draft legislation also...
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt could create a consortium to manage oil flows through Strait of Hormuz, and had asked Pakistan to participate - Pakistani sources
".. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel." @business
BREAKING: Inflation in the Philippines is now set to average 5.1% in 2026 amid surging oil prices and their recently declared "energy emergency," per FT. The Philippines imports 95% of its crude oil and is now facing its biggest energy crisis in history.
Wild! [QT @elonmusk: Delivering 119 satellites to orbit at once! Falcon 9, which can carry ~20 tons to orbit (with a reusable booster & fairing), is a "heavy" class rocket by conventional standards.]
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year (-8% for Apple to -26% for Microsoft) and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (which is down -1%) by a wide margin.
GOLDMAN DESK: ".. Nvidia now trades at par / slight discount to the S&P500 on fwd P/E for the first time in 10+ years. ".. yes, Nvidia is now trading at par with the S&P500 on fwd P/E despite, Nvidia alone expected to contribute to ~21% of the indices growth in 2026 .."
USS Tripoli: 3,500 sailors & Marines to Middle East; US official: sufficient forces for significant ground operation against Iran by start of next week
BREAKING: The USS Tripoli has arrived in the Middle East carrying 3,500 sailors and Marines amid reports that the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran, per CNN.
Strikes on energy infrastructure in Tehran Province; Iranian Ministry of Energy confirms ongoing power outages in Tehran and northern Iran cities; 10-day pause effectively ended
So I guess the 10-day pause isn't happening [QT @sentdefender: The Iranian Ministry of Energy has confirmed ongoing power outages in Tehran and other cities across Northern Iran, following strikes in the past hour by Israel and/or the United States against energy infrastructure in the Tehran Province.]
Pakistan FM Ishaq Dar confirms Iran-US talks in Islamabad; both US and Iran expressed confidence in Pakistan; China supports; Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt FMs in attendance
🔴Pakistan Foreign Minister confirms Iran-US talks may take place in Islamabad in the coming days. [QT @financialjuice: Pakistan Foreign Minister: Briefed ministers and delegates regarding the potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad.]
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt: consortium to manage Strait of Hormuz oil flows; Pakistan invited; plan floated to both US and Iran; 5 sources familiar with the matter
🔴 Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt could create a consortium to manage oil flows through Strait of Hormuz, and had asked Pakistan to participate - Pakistani sources
".. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel." @business
Global long-term bond outflows: -$4.7B week ending Mar 25, 2nd largest on record; record: -$6.8B (2020 pandemic); HY corporate bonds: 3rd consecutive week of outflows
BREAKING: Global long-term bonds posted -$4.7 billion in outflows in the week ending March 25th, the 2nd-largest on record. This is only below the -$6.8 billion seen during the 2020 pandemic. At the same time, high-yield corporate bonds posted their 3rd consecutive weekly...
S&P 500: -7% in first 59 trading days of 2026; 14th worst start to a year in history; Friday -1.7%; 10 daily declines >1% YTD; historical avg: 29 large declines per year
Nvidia fwd P/E at par/slight discount to S&P 500 for first time in 10+ years; Nvidia ~21% contributor to S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026; per Goldman Sachs desk
GOLDMAN DESK: ".. Nvidia now trades at par / slight discount to the S&P500 on fwd P/E for the first time in 10+ years. ".. yes, Nvidia is now trading at par with the S&P500 on fwd P/E despite, Nvidia alone expected to contribute to ~21% of the indices growth in 2026 .."
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year (-8% for Apple to -26% for Microsoft) and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (which is down -1%) by a wide margin.
IDF: 150+ fighter jets, 120+ munitions; targets: ballistic missile component development site + IRGC military industries research site; Iranian Ministry of Energy confirmed power outages across northern Iran; power partially restored per Fars News
⭕️24 HOUR RECAP: 150+ fighter jets have used 120+ munitions in strikes on infrastructure sites in Tehran. Targets included: • A site for the development of critical components for ballistic missiles • A site used by the IRGC's military industries for the research and...
Pentagon preparing mixed SOF + conventional infantry raids in Iran per WaPo; US officials: 'enough forces for a significant ground operation' by start of next week; White House: 'Trump is prepared to unleash hell'
Iran rejected Trump's 15-point plan to end the war; nuclear program at center; IAEA Director-General Grossi briefed on current status of Iran's nuclear program
Iran has rejected President Trump's 15-point plan to end the war. At the center of the proposed deal is Iran's nuclear program. What is the status of that program now? I asked @rafaelmgrossi of the @iaeaorg in Part 1 of our conversation.
The new aim of the war appears to be correcting a problem that didn't exist before it: Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and, therefore, the price of oil.
BREAKING: Global long-term bonds posted -$4.7 billion in outflows in the week ending March 25th, the 2nd-largest on record. This is only below the -$6.8 billion seen during the 2020 pandemic. At the same time, high-yield corporate bonds posted their 3rd consecutive weekly
Gas prices in the US rose to $4.10 per gallon last week, their highest level since August 2022. The 33% increase over the last 4 weeks ($3.07/gallon to $4.10/gallon) is the biggest 4-week spike we've seen in the past 30 years.
The S&P 500 is now down 9% from its January peak. This is the biggest correction since the tariff tantrum last April and the longest since the 2022 bear market. $SPX
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year (-8% for Apple to -26% for Microsoft) and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (which is down -1%) by a wide margin.
A stunning 53% spread between the best and worst performing S&P 500 sectors so far this year: -Energy $XLE: +41% -Financials $XLF: -12% This is what stagflation looks like...
⭕️24 HOUR RECAP: 150+ fighter jets have used 120+ munitions in strikes on infrastructure sites in Tehran. Targets included: A site for the development of critical components for ballistic missiles. A site used by the IRGC's military industries for the research and
BREAKING: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament provides trading advice to investors trading US markets: 'Pre-market so-called news or Truth is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it is a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it,
Gas prices in the US rose to $4.10 per gallon last week, their highest level since August 2022. The 33% increase over the last 4 weeks ($3.07/gallon to $4.10/gallon) is the biggest 4-week spike we've seen in the past 30 years.
BREAKING: US stock market futures open lower as Iran War peace talks appear to have stalled.
1. S&P 500: -0.7%
2. Nasdaq 100: -0.8%
3. Dow Jones: -0.7%
4. WTI Crude: +3.0%
5. Brent: +2.5%
6. Natural Gas: -7.0%
US gas prices are set to break above $4.00/gallon this week.
All 7 members of the Magnificent Seven are down on the year (-8% for Apple to -26% for Microsoft) and underperforming the average stock in the S&P 500 (which is down -1%) by a wide margin.
The S&P 500 is now down 9% from its January peak. This is the biggest correction since the tariff tantrum last April and the longest since the 2022 bear market. $SPX
A stunning 53% spread between the best and worst performing S&P 500 sectors so far this year:
-Energy $XLE: +41%
-Financials $XLF: -12%
This is what stagflation looks like...
Tehran & Karaj: widespread blackouts post-strikes; Tabriz: petrochemical plant targeted; power later restored to most areas; no toxic release per Iranian state media
BREAKING: Widespread power outages and blackouts are being reported across Iran following new US and Israeli strikes.
We have yet to receive comment on Iran from President Trump since Thursday, when Trump said he was pausing strikes on Iranian power plants until April 6th.
⭕️24 HOUR RECAP: 150+ fighter jets have used 120+ munitions in strikes on infrastructure sites in Tehran
Targets included:
• A site for the development of critical components for ballistic missiles
• A site used by the IRGC's military industries for the research and
Polymarket: 70% chance that the US will have troops on the ground in Iran by the end of April.
>$50 million wagered on this so far.
It shouldn't be legal to 'bet' on something like this - you're creating a financial incentive for bad actors to promote war/death/destruction.
BREAKING: In another sudden turn of events, the US is allowing a Russian tanker full of crude oil to reach Cuba, per NYT.
Details include:
1. The tanker is carrying an estimated 730,000 barrels of oil and is owned by the Russian government
2. This is expected to temporarily
Gold stocks are in historically oversold territory: ~95% of stocks in the gold miners ETF, $GDX, are now trading in a bear market, the highest since at least April 2023. This has surged +850% over the last 4 weeks as gold miners have dropped -25% over this period, entering a bear market.
Sugar prices are just starting to move after rebounding from a key historical support level. This could turn into a highly explosive move in my view. Few assets carry such significant societal implications if they begin to rally.
Sanders on AI: We need to develop a sense of urgency of here. The economic impacts are going to be enormous. The impacts on our children will be enormous, and again, there is literally an existential threat to the existence of the human race.
Ukraine appears to have carved out a remarkably flexible and pragmatic role in this fracturing global order. For Ukraine itself this could be cold survival math. They swap their low cost Sting interceptors, 1,000 a day at $2,100 dollars each, for actual Patriot missiles they [need].
"There are several ways in which U.S. consumers will begin to feel the pinch of the war. Some of those effects have to do with domestic commerce, and some are a result of the interwoven nature of global trade," Vidya Mani wrote for @ConversationUS.
Is this true re OAI? It's hard to know anymore. Either way. This whole period will be studied. Insane "purchase agreements" creating 100s of billions in wealth… circular financing … 19 layer SPVs… MANAGE RISK
The EU trips itself up in the AI race. Its overregulation threatens the Continent's economy and security—and the West's prospects against China, write @AndyPuzder and @jacobhelberg
Gold stocks are in historically oversold territory: ~95% of stocks in the gold miners ETF, $GDX, are now trading in a bear market, the highest since at least April 2023. This has surged +850% over the last 4 weeks as gold miners have dropped -25% over this period, entering a
Ukraine appears to have carved out a remarkably flexible and pragmatic role in this fracturing global order. For Ukraine itself this could be cold survival math. They swap their low cost Sting interceptors, 1,000 a day at $2,100 dollars each, for actual Patriot missiles they
Gold stocks are in historically oversold territory: ~95% of stocks in the gold miners ETF, $GDX, are now trading in a bear market, the highest since at least April 2023. This has surged +850% over the last 4 weeks as gold miners have dropped -25% over this period, entering a...
Bab-el-Mandeb blockade threat; Saudi Yanbu port oil/petroleum exports potentially cut to 1/3 of current volumes; Houthi financial leverage over Saudi Arabia
This is what peak agency + bio/acc looks like. [GitLab's founder was told he has bone cancer. No trials would take him. Doctors signed off. So he went founder mode on his own survival. - Built his own treatments - Used AI to analyze his own tumor data - Open-sourced 25TB of his medical records for any researcher on earth]
The EU trips itself up in the AI race. Its overregulation threatens the Continent's economy and security—and the West's prospects against China, write @AndyPuzder and @jacobhelberg
Large crowds protested Saturday against the war in Iran and President Donald Trump's actions in "No Kings" rallies across the U.S. and Europe, with Minnesota taking center stage.
Gold stocks are in historically oversold territory: ~95% of stocks in the gold miners ETF, $GDX, are now trading in a bear market, the highest since at least April 2023. This has surged +850% over the last 4 weeks as gold miners have dropped -25% over this period, entering a
Two Australian states will temporarily offer free public transport to ease the effects of rising fuel costs, as prolonged hostilities in the Middle East increase supply risks
This is going, where we all dreaded AI might go. Not just predicting will you click an ad but what will you react, seeing a post or ad or anything else. Powerful and next-level move by Meta! [QT @AIatMeta: Today we're introducing TRIBE v2 (Trimodal Brain Encoder), a foundation model trained to predict how the human brain responds to almost any sight or sound.]
Largest-ever training run; performance far above internal expectations and scaling law predictions; ~3 weeks ago; frontier intelligence may become too expensive for most of humanity
Iran has agreed to allow 20 more ships under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar says in an X post.
ostium labs just processed the largest onchain gold trade ever at $26.4m notional. $30m+ in total protocol revenue, 96% from commodity perps, no token. a single trader built a $33m nikkei position across 28 trades with 0.0083% price impact on arbitrum. this is the airdrop farm
These takes are terrible. Swap lines help foreign banks. They do nothing for sovereigns who need to punch out and can't sell illiquid alts/PC/PE/RE. Iraq doesn't make payroll through end April and goes to IMF first. Once Houthis spring the Honey Trap and everyone gets all hot
two Australian states, free public transport, rising fuel costs, Middle East hostilities supply risks
此举是中东冲突通过能源价格向普通消费者端传导的具体体现，主权政府被迫直接补贴能源密集型出行成本。
Two Australian states will temporarily offer free public transport to ease the effects of rising fuel costs, as prolonged hostilities in the Middle East increase supply risks
largest ever training run, performance far above internal expectations and scaling law predictions, ~3 weeks ago, 'too expensive for most of humanity to afford'
'Instead of becoming too cheap to meter, frontier intelligence may be about to become too expensive for most of humanity to afford.' real [QT @AndrewCurran_: Three weeks ago there were rumors that one of the labs had completed its largest ever successful training run, and that the model that emerged from it performed far above both internal expectations and what people assumed the scaling laws would predict.]
This is going, where we all dreaded AI might go. Not just predicting will you click an ad but what will you react, seeing a post or ad or anything else. Powerful and next-level move by Meta!
Iran has agreed to allow 20 more ships under the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar says in an X post.
ostium labs just processed the largest onchain gold trade ever at $26.4m notional. $30m+ in total protocol revenue, 96% from commodity perps, no token. a single trader built a $33m nikkei position across 28 trades with 0.0083% price impact on arbitrum. this is the airdrop farm
Ignore the noise: this is NOT the 1970s and Trump is NOT launching Iraq 2.0. High‑frequency data show no demand destruction: Americans are still spending, flying and filling hotels. Inflation expectations are well anchored. The 'Iran shock' is a short term [event]
These takes are terrible. Swap lines help foreign banks. They do nothing for sovereigns who need to punch out and can't sell illiquid alts/PC/PE/RE. Iraq doesn't make payroll through end April and goes to IMF first.
Two Australian states, free public transport, Middle East prolonged hostilities, rising fuel costs
此举标志中东能源冲击已传导至G10经济体政府干预层面，财政补贴替代市场定价成为即时应对手段。
Two Australian states will temporarily offer free public transport to ease the effects of rising fuel costs, as prolonged hostilities in the Middle East increase supply risks
I mostly use LLMs to disagree with me. Every idea I have I just ask Claude and GPT pro to wallop me into the ground, to the best of their ability. Claude becomes apologetic after a while, GPT doesn't and it will try to kill you.
SolanaOs is mobile verification for agents. Prove your @Solana programs are mathematically correct. QEDGen turns Claude into a Lean 4 proof engineer — writing specs, generating formal proofs, and verifying access control, conservation, state machines, arithmetic safety, and CPI
Japanese carmakers like Honda and Nissan are losing market share at an alarming rate as China takes the lead in electrification. Can the once mighty Japanese car brands rally in the face of this threat?
ostium labs just processed the largest onchain gold trade ever at $26.4m notional. $30m+ in total protocol revenue, 96% from commodity perps, no token. a single trader built a $33m nikkei position across 28 trades with 0.0083% price impact on arbitrum. this is the airdrop farm
This not good. This very bad. Weekend futures below45k. It must not fall. The market needs a burrito 🌯. A taco 🌮 won't do. Perhaps even a souvlaki before Monday's open.
So the ME/large Asia sovereigns who have been running surpluses and recycling into USTs/eqtys are going to suddenly suck Bessent's kneecaps for Treasury swaps funded by whom and at what rate exactly. That Apr 9th 30Y auction is gonna be fun to watch.
🤯🤯🤯 [QT @0rdlibrary: SolanaOs is mobile verification for agents. Prove your @Solana programs are mathematically correct. QEDGen turns Claude into a Lean 4 proof engineer — writing specs, generating formal proofs, and verifying access control, conservation, state machines, arithmetic safety, and CPI]
We've got a really cool & radically different version of V8 coming very soon. The prev version was called 'V8 Alpha', but im not sure if anyone knows what a 'alpha' is anymore. I'm trying to decide if the next one should be called V8 Beta or V8 or just V8.1. What do you think?
Japanese carmakers like Honda and Nissan are losing market share at an alarming rate as China takes the lead in electrification. Can the once mighty Japanese car brands rally in the face of this threat?
ostium labs just processed the largest onchain gold trade ever at $26.4m notional. $30m+ in total protocol revenue, 96% from commodity perps, no token. a single trader built a $33m nikkei position across 28 trades with 0.0083% price impact on arbitrum. this is the airdrop farm.
The research team found that letting students just use AI resulted in them using it to accidentally shortcut learning. But both that study and a separate RCT found that AIs prompted to act as a tutor improved learning.
japan is running out of monks... so they're training AI robots called "buddharoid" to replace them — japan's temples are closing because fewer priests are available to run them + aging population - the solution: chatgpt robots trained on buddhist texts
Japanese carmakers like Honda and Nissan are losing market share at an alarming rate as China takes the lead in electrification. Can the once mighty Japanese car brands rally in the face of this threat?
A leadership dispute within Lopez, one of the Philippines' biggest conglomerates, led to the ouster of its president over what he said was a disagreement over a 2-billion peso ($33 million) capital infusion for media unit ABS-CBN
Catastrophe bonds are being sold as a way to insure the uninsurable on a constantly warming planet. But critics say they can leave vulnerable nations out of luck when disaster strikes
The research team found that letting students just use AI resulted in them using it to accidentally shortcut learning. But both that study and a separate RCT found that AIs prompted to act as a tutor improved learning.
Japan 'Buddharoid' AI robots, ChatGPT-trained, temple closures due to aging population and monk shortage
japan is running out of monks... so they're training AI robots called 'buddharoid' to replace them (im not joking): japan's temples are closing because fewer priests are available to run them + aging population - the solution: chatgpt robots trained on [Buddhist teachings]
SarvamAI, Chanakya, full-stack AI vertical, national consequence + complex enterprise focus
[QT @SarvamAI: We've been quietly building something over the past year - applying our full-stack AI to problems of national consequence and complex enterprises. Now we're scaling the vertical behind it - Chanakya.]
Lopez conglomerate Philippines, president ousted, 2 billion peso ($33 million), ABS-CBN capital infusion dispute
A leadership dispute within Lopez, one of the Philippines' biggest conglomerates, led to the ouster of its president over what he said was a disagreement over a 2-billion peso ($33 million) capital infusion for media unit ABS-CBN
Beijing summoned the US's top envoy to Hong Kong after the consulate posted an alert about new rules giving authorities power to demand passwords for smartphones or other devices in national security investigations
#15 now it's happening. [QT: Cardano will fall out of top 20 in 2026. It's a total ghostchain. No-one uses it. Even price performance has been abysmal: peak couldn't even reach -50% vs peak in 2021. Hyperliquid, Monad, Zcash will all flip it next year.]
Chankya 🤔 [QT @SarvamAI: We've been quietly building something over the past year - applying our full-stack AI to problems of national consequence and complex enterprises. Now we're scaling the vertical behind it - Chanakya.]
#15 now it's happening. [QT @ASvanevik: Cardano will fall out of top 20 in 2026. It's a total ghostchain. No-one uses it. Even price performance has been abysmal: peak couldn't even reach -50% vs peak in 2021. Hyperliquid, Monad, Zcash will all flip it next year.]
Donald Trump's willingness to attack adversaries while rattling allies is threatening to push the world into a new nuclear age. From the North Atlantic to the West Pacific, governments are debating more publicly than before whether they, too, must get the bomb.
忘掉TACO吧，这段故事已成历史 [QT @FirstSquawk: Market pressure on Trump to de-escalate the Iran war has reached extreme levels. The "TACO Index" has surged to nearly 2 standard deviations above its historical mean for the first time.]
Syria is seeking foreign investors for a $1 billion drive to revamp its mobile-phone coverage and postal service, as the war-torn country rebuilds after the US lifted sanctions.
Troops from the Alpinist Unit carried out a targeted operation across complex, snow-covered terrain, from the Syrian Hermon to the Mount Dov area, to locate and dismantle terrorist infrastructure and gather critical intelligence, as well as prevent terrorist
TACO Index: ~2 standard deviations above historical mean for the first time
该极端读数表明金融市场对伊朗冲突持续升级的风险溢价已达峰值，市场明显押注美方将面临被迫降级的压力。
Market pressure on Trump to de-escalate the Iran war has reached extreme levels. The "TACO Index" has surged to nearly 2 standard deviations above its historical mean for the first time.
忘掉TACO吧，这段故事已成历史 [QT @FirstSquawk: Market pressure on Trump to de-escalate the Iran war has reached extreme levels. The 'TACO Index' has surged to nearly 2 standard deviations above its historical mean for the first time.]
French factory closures jumped almost 30% last year after rising pressure from Asian competitors and the blow from US tariffs, while the number of new openings also declined.
We just gave Claude full access to the options, equities, and prediction markets. The Unusual Whales MCP Server plugs into any AI and streams live, structured market data on demand.
Jeff Dean says we're going to have to re-engineer our tools because they were designed for human speed. An AI agent can run 50x faster, but the tools it relies on don't. So even if the model gets infinitely fast, you only get 2-3x improvement overall. Amdahl's law still
Debt is central issue: ~$1.3B obligations outstanding at 12/31/25 w/most maturing/requiring paydowns w/i~ year & many loans subject to cash sweeps that divert excess property cash flow to lenders…company has paid no distributions since June 2023
Petron Corp., the Philippines' only refiner, has procured 2.48 million barrels of crude oil from Russia to support domestic energy needs with the war in Iran raging.
World Trade Organization members are weighing a five-year extension of a global ban on e-commerce tariffs, according to a draft statement circulating Sunday.
Berkshire Hathaway's $BRK.B 2026 annual shareholder meeting on Saturday, May 2nd will be the first one that Warren Buffett is not scheduled to speak. The end of a era.
World Trade Organization members are weighing a five-year extension of a global ban on e-commerce tariffs, according to a draft statement circulating Sunday.
Petron Corp., the Philippines' only refiner, has procured 2.48 million barrels of crude oil from Russia to support domestic energy needs with the war in Iran raging.
$COMPQ NASDAQ % of Stocks Above the 200-DMA sitting at 30.93. Nearly 70% of NASDAQ stocks are already in a downtrend. Historically, real bottoms don't form until this hits sub 20, and most go sub 10. Look at every green circle on this chart: 2002, 2009, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2022,
When conversion not an option. "Debt is central issue: ~$1.3B obligations outstanding at 12/31/25 w/most maturing/requiring paydowns w/i~ year & many loans subject to cash sweeps that divert excess property cash flow to lenders…company has paid no distributions since June 2023"
French factory closures jumped almost 30% last year after rising pressure from Asian competitors and the blow from US tariffs, while the number of new openings also declined.
chainlink SVR recaptured $16.7m in liquidation MEV from aave in 9 months. $6m annualized on ethereum alone, a 47% boost to aave protocol revenue with zero product changes. aave just approved expansion to base and arbitrum. morpho, compound, and spark haven't integrated yet.
The fact that drug development has to be done in China because of FDA overregulation should be alarming. We need to deregulate in order to accelerate biotech progress in the United States. Eroom's law must come to an end. Enough.
$NAMO Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator -39.50. Every green circle on this chart marks a short-term bottom, and every single one of them came when this indicator crashed to the green line near -75 ++ Oversold? Yes. Real flush 'sell everything' day? No.
Chainlink SVR: $16.7M MEV recaptured from Aave in 9 months; $6M annualized on Ethereum; +47% to Aave protocol revenue; Base + Arbitrum expansion approved; Morpho, Compound, Spark not yet integrated
chainlink SVR recaptured $16.7m in liquidation MEV from aave in 9 months. $6m annualized on ethereum alone, a 47% boost to aave protocol revenue with zero product changes. aave just approved expansion to base and arbitrum. morpho, compound, and spark haven't integrated yet.
Murray: Is it true that people making under $184k pay a 12.4% Social Security tax rate? Dahl: Yes. Murray: And the rate for someone making $1 million? Dahl: 2.2%. Murray: So, a 12.4% tax for people making less than $184k, but 2.2% for a millionaire or .0002% for billionaires.
The fact that drug development has to be done in China because of FDA overregulation should be alarming. We need to deregulate in order to accelerate biotech progress in the United States. Eroom's law must come to an end. [QT: Their CEO, Alex Zhavoronkov, told CNBC that Insilico has already developed at least 28 drugs using generative AI tools, with nearly half already at a clinical stage. They develop their models in Canada and the ME, and then conduct the early preclinical drug development in China.]
Murray: Is it true that people making under $184k pay a 12.4% Social Security tax rate? Dahl: Yes Murray: And the rate for someone making $1 million? Dahl: 2.2% Murray: So, a 12.4% tax for people making less than $184k, but 2.2% for a millionaire or .0002% for billionaires.
The fact that drug development has to be done in China because of FDA overregulation should be alarming. We need to deregulate in order to accelerate biotech progress in the United States. Eroom's law must come to an end. Enough.
GOLDMAN DESK: ".. Since the start of the war long only trading activity.. on our desk has essentially been nonexistent .. It is eerie. .. I worry that we are now approaching the point in this conflict where the L/O community will become unfrozen and start cutting some real risk."
Iran has rejected President Trump's 15-point plan to end the war. At the center of the proposed deal is Iran's nuclear program. What is the status of that program now? I asked @rafaelmgrossi of the @iaeaorg in Part 1 of our conversation:
BREAKING: Inflation in the Philippines is now set to average 5.1% in 2026 amid surging oil prices and their recently declared "energy emergency," per FT. The Philippines imports 95% of its crude oil and is now facing its biggest energy crisis in history.
Apple's revamped AI and Siri strategy shows the company is recommitting to its core business model: selling hardware and services, writes Mark Gurman. Read this week's Power On newsletter here.
AI cyber capabilities threat window: 'order of months'; Carlini: ex-Google DeepMind adversarial robustness researcher, now at Anthropic; 'Waiting a year is going to be too long'
Below is re: AI cyber capabilities. Carlini is an extremely well-regarded and level-headed AI and security researcher (he is not a safetyist who rebranded as 'AI security'; he worked on things like neural net adversarial robustness for years at GDM before joining anthropic). [QT: Speaking not as an Anthropic employee — I don't really care where you help, just please help... the world will need a lot of people to be doing a lot of this work and it needs to happen soon. Order months. Waiting a year is going to be too long.]
Banks have tripled lending to private equity and credit since 2018 to over $300 billion. As a result, funds that invest in highly leveraged companies have themselves become leveraged.
Pakistan announced Sunday that it will soon host talks between the U.S. and Iran, though there was no immediate word from Washington or Tehran, and it was unclear whether the talks would be direct or indirect.
Iranian Parliament Speaker @mb_ghalibaf posted on social media: 'Pre-market so-called news or Truth is often just a setup for profit-taking. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.'
BREAKING: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament provides trading advice to investors trading US markets: 'Pre-market so-called 'news' or 'Truth' is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it is a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it,'
ETH exchange reserves: 10-year low at 15M coins; 60-day validator queue: 3.4M ETH; 31% of supply staked; blob capacity: 30% full — threshold between perpetual inflation and burn mechanism reactivating
ethereum blob capacity is 30% full. that single metric is the difference between perpetual inflation and the burn mechanism reactivating. ETH exchange reserves just hit a 10-year low at 15m coins, 60-day validator queue with 3.4m ETH waiting to stake, 31% of supply already
moonwell lost $7m+ across 3 separate exploits in 4 months with halborn audits. one hack came from AI-generated code. venus had OpenZeppelin, PeckShield, and Quantstamp and still ate $3.7m in exchange rate manipulation. resolv had 3 audit firms and lost $6.2m through a leaked AWS
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months.
Carlini is an extremely well-regarded and level-headed AI and security researcher (he is not a safetyist who rebranded as 'AI security'; he worked on things like neural net adversarial robustness for years at GDM before joining anthropic). Speaking not as an Anthropic employee — I don't really care where you help, just please help... the world will need a lot of people to be doing a lot of this work and it needs to happen soon. Order months. Waiting a year is going to be too long.
Thesis: the problem with AI working in every domain = all the edge cases. Antithesis: domains with lots of edge cases = difficult & time consuming to practically impossible for error-prone people. Synthesis: such domains = where AI agents will do best. (Such as SAAS migration…)
Banks have tripled lending to private equity and credit since 2018 to over $300 billion. As a result, funds that invest in highly leveraged companies have themselves become leveraged.
Polymarket: 70% chance that the US will have troops on the ground in Iran by the end of April. >$50 million wagered on this so far. It shouldn't be legal to 'bet' on something like this - you're creating a financial incentive for bad actors to promote war/death/destruction.
Pakistan announced Sunday that it will soon host talks between the U.S. and Iran, though there was no immediate word from Washington or Tehran, and it was unclear whether the talks would be direct or indirect.
ethereum blob capacity is 30% full. that single metric is the difference between perpetual inflation and the burn mechanism reactivating. ETH exchange reserves just hit a 10-year low at 15m coins, 60-day validator queue with 3.4m ETH waiting to stake, 31% of supply already
I'll continue to say 'if' this is a bear flag on $BTC, then the reaction we see from a break should be relatively quick. Breakdowns from these structures don't tend to stall, therefore if it's legit then it should produce continued aggressive downside without much hesitating.
moonwell lost $7m+ across 3 separate exploits in 4 months with halborn audits. one hack came from AI-generated code. venus had OpenZeppelin, PeckShield, and Quantstamp and still ate $3.7m in exchange rate manipulation. resolv had 3 audit firms and lost $6.2m through a leaked AWS
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since September 2022, rising 52% YoY.
About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months.
Wild!
[QT @elonmusk: Delivering 119 satellites to orbit at once! Falcon 9, which can carry ~20 tons to orbit (with a reusable booster & fairing), is a "heavy" class rocket by conventional standards.]
Below is re: AI cyber capabilities. Carlini is an extremely well-regarded and level-headed AI and security researcher (he is not a safetyist who rebranded as 'AI security'; he worked on things like neural net adversarial robustness for years at GDM before joining anthropic).
[Speaking not as an Anthropic employee — I don't really care where you help, just please help... the world will need a lot of people to be doing a lot of this work and it needs to happen soon. Order months. Waiting a year is going to be too long.]
Banks have tripled lending to private equity and credit since 2018 to over $300 billion. As a result, funds that invest in highly leveraged companies have themselves become leveraged.
Pakistan announced Sunday that it will soon host talks between the U.S. and Iran, though there was no immediate word from Washington or Tehran, and it was unclear whether the talks would be direct or indirect.
moonwell lost $7m+ across 3 separate exploits in 4 months with halborn audits. one hack came from AI-generated code. venus had OpenZeppelin, PeckShield, and Quantstamp and still ate $3.7m in exchange rate manipulation. resolv had 3 audit firms and lost $6.2m through a leaked AWS
pendle at $187m market cap on $3.5b TVL. every $1 of market cap backs $11 of protocol deposits. 0.18x price-to-revenue ratio when DeFi blue chips trade at 3-5x. token down 50% since january. TVL up 75% in the same period. 80% of revenue now routes to buybacks for stakers.