Macro Weekly · Research
Week of July 20, 2026 · Issue #1
Fact layer only — every exhibit carries Source + as-of. Interpretation and views are published separately (Chinese weekly) and appear here solely on the page marked OUR VIEW.
This Week in One Page
Flows · Systematic
| Scenario | 1W Global ($bn) | 1W US ($bn) | 1M Global ($bn) | 1M US ($bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat tape | +13.5 | +6.0 | +14.7 | +6.7 |
| Up tape | +13.1 | +5.4 | +41.7 | +9.8 |
| Down tape | −3.1 | +4.1 | −127.7 | −42.6 |
Flows · Options
Flows · Reaction Function
Liquidity
| Gauge | Latest | Read |
|---|---|---|
| SOFR − IORB | −3bp | Bank cash still comfortable |
| ON RRP | $0.1bn | Buffer fully drained — next drain hits reserves directly |
| Reserves (H.4.1) | $3.14T | +$191bn over 3 weeks, funded by the TGA drawdown |
| TGA | $756bn | −$162bn over 3 weeks — a one-off, self-exhausting easing |
Rates & Fed
AI Trade · The Lifeline
| Metric | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic run-rate | $9B → ~$30B → $47B | End-2025 → spring → May 2026; second derivative still positive |
| OpenAI revenue | $25-33B | Company-claimed range |
| Hyperscaler 2026 capex | >$700B | AMZN ~200 · GOOGL 175-185 · META 115-135 · MSFT 120+ · ORCL 50 |
Credit
Falsifiable Checkpoints
| # | Trigger | Verifiable condition | Due |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CTA flip | Any SPX close below 7,427 | next issue |
| 2 | Shield test | ≥50% of the Jul 17 drawdown recovered within 3 sessions, absent fresh bad news | next issue |
| 3 | Hyperscaler capex | Any 2026 capex guide-down during earnings week | Jul 31 |
| 4 | Fed meta-signal | Hike-leaning language or ≥2 dissents on Jul 28-29 | Jul 29 |
| 5 | Credit confirmation | HY OAS closes above 300bp | rolling 4w |
| 6 | Inflation cap test | July core CPI m/m ≥ 0.4% | Aug 12 |
| 7 | Lifeline datapoint | Jun/Jul lab revenue reports: second derivative positive or negative | rolling |
Interpretation — Clearly Separated From the Fact Pages
Defense first into the verdict window: no adds above 7,427; below it, let the mechanical supply run — don't catch the knife.
Void if: 7,427 holds and no hyperscaler cuts capex guidance → shift to neutral-constructive.
The Kimi scare is a hybrid event, not the turn. With the lifeline still accelerating, SMH −17% is a repairable correction — but repair waits for the checkpoints; no front-running.
Void if: any capex guide-down, or lab revenue's second derivative prints negative → shield status upgrades from "cracked" to "broken".
The front end has over-paid for tightening risk: oil pass-through is cappable by coefficient, core is 2.6% with no wage tinder. Long the 2-year.
Void if: July core CPI ≥0.4% m/m or wage growth re-accelerates.
Today's liquidity tailwind is borrowed: TGA drawdown exhausts, RRP buffer is zero, and August coupon supply drains reserves directly. Turn cautious on the liquidity impulse.
Void if: reserves fall <$100bn in the 4 weeks post-QRA.
No price targets, by discipline. Positioning data in this issue lags ~half a week; a materially different next CTA matrix re-opens the flows call.
Appendix
FRED latest: SOFR 3.62 (7/16) · IORB 3.65 (7/17) · ON RRP $0.1bn (7/17) · Reserves $3.14T (wk 7/15) · TGA $756bn (wk 7/15) · VIX 16.73 · HY OAS 271bp · IG OAS 78bp · 2Y 4.16% · 10Y 4.57% · 5Y/10Y breakevens 2.24%/2.22% (all 7/16) · Brent 81.62 (7/13) · Unemployment 4.2% (Jun) · Core CPI 2.6% y/y (Jun).
Markets: SPX 7,457.69 (Jul 17 close), −1.6% w/w · Nasdaq 25,520, −2.9% w/w · SMH −17% MTD. Relayed exhibits: GS CTA matrix & Prime Book via Tickmill (Jul 14, data ~Jul 11); dealer gamma via SpotGamma (Jul 16). Relayed desk data are estimates, for illustration, and not independently verifiable.
Data tiers: T1 official · T2 own calculations · T3 relayed (source named) · T4 first-hand sensors. Methodology distilled from @shanghaojin E1-E10 (Mar-Jun 2026); production: macro_weekly pipeline, issue #1 (manual dry-run).
Disclaimer: Personal research. Not investment advice. No solicitation. Figures as of the dates shown and subject to revision.